Pros and cons of a war scenario in Iran
It is not hard to guess, that America and Iran are heading towards a war scenario. If ones takes into consideration, recent challenges in the Gulf of Oman involving the explosion of two tankers, threats, the shooting of an american spy drone recently, and of course the fact that the agreement accomplished in 2015, between the two countries has literally been abandoned by Iran, since Trump was already not satisfied with it.
Trump considered the 2015 negotiation, as not good enough and used maximum pressure and extra sanctions to make Iran obey. This mixture of course proved non-efficient, as it caused back Iran's reaction against enormous sanctions, which made its economy fall apart. Nevertheless, opinions on what is politically profitable or not, vary considerably. According to Mike Pompeo, recent Iranian aggression is a sign that the strategy used by the U.S. is a successful one...But of course it is not a secret that the politics you implement on an issue, are stemming from the inner values of a political party. And success stems from minding the whole picture...
It is true, that hard sanctions brought Iran to the negotiation table back in 2015. But it is also true, that Iran's president Rouhani, was treated as non-equal and this fact filled the way with obstacles.
But no one is ready for a war and especially the U.S.
Iran has been through financial difficulties- caused by the imposed sanctions-, and the U.S. cannot estimate correctly the "psychology" of a supressed state.The problem as always, caused by the maximum pressure used by America is misinterpretation. If a message is not correctly trasmitted, escalation will be the result.
It is known that new sanctions on Iran, and maybe even a war scenario, will weaken Iran's economy furthermore, but noone can guarantee that Iran's Islamic Democracy will not resist sanctions for a long period of time. It has also happened in the past, in other countries. If Iran gets more sanctions, it is possible it will multiply the strength and efforts needed to have a bomb. By excluding international surveillance on the production of enriched uranium, as Iran moves away from the 2015 agreement, it is likely that its nuclear programme will be better developped in silence.
The only way for getting Iran back to the negotiation table, after so many faults caused by the west, is to loosen sanctions and let Iran provide other countries with iranian oil. Trump should sincerely think about it, as his pre-election campaign is about to take place, and noone would agree it can be profitable in terms of communication, to run a pre-election campaign in the middle of a war with Iran...
Besides, when the 2015 negotiation agreement was achieved, America was supported by its European allies and even Russia and China. But the political scene changed completely since then. Russia and China will never agree with a war in Iran and the European countries are unlikely to support and participate in such a "project".
Trump is left alone. And there is no way out. Even if he chooses war, his end will be forshadowed and Iran will go through serious trouble, but noone can assume it won't make it by resisting even for decades...
Nelson Mandela once said: "May your choices reflect your hopes not your fears", and i coudn't find a better quote, if i was ever asked to express my thoughts, on how the U.S. should act from now on...
written by Themis Panagiotopoulou, PhD in Political Science